Hellas Verona vs AS Roma: Final Day Showdown in Serie A

On 24 May 2026, the lights of Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Verona will frame a finale of contrasts: Hellas Verona fighting to salvage pride at the end of a grim campaign, AS Roma arriving with a Champions League place already secured and the swagger of a top-four side. In a city braced for a difficult goodbye to Serie A football, Verona must face one of the division’s most in-form teams, while Roma have the chance to underline their status among Italy’s elite on the final day.

Season Context

For Hellas Verona, the table tells a harsh story. Nineteenth place with 21 points and a goal difference of -34 leaves them firmly in the “Relegation - Serie B” zone. Across 37 matches they have managed only 3 wins, 12 draws and 22 defeats, scoring 25 goals and conceding 59. At home they have struggled badly (1 win in 18, 12 goals scored and 26 conceded), turning Bentegodi from fortress into fragile ground.

AS Roma arrive in Verona in a far more comfortable position. Fourth in Serie A with 70 points and a goal difference of +26, they are already in the “Promotion - Champions League (League phase)” bracket. Over 37 games Roma have recorded 22 wins, 4 draws and 11 defeats, with 57 goals scored and just 31 conceded. Their away record is solid if inconsistent (9 wins, 1 draw, 8 defeats, 24 goals for and 21 against), but their overall numbers underline a top-end side with genuine attacking and defensive balance.

Form & Momentum

Hellas Verona come into this finale on a bleak run, summed up by the form string “DLDDL”. That sequence reflects a side finding wins extremely hard to come by (3 victories in 37 matches, 21 points) and struggling at both ends of the pitch, with an average of only 0.7 goals scored per game and 1.6 conceded (25 for, 59 against over 37). Even their last-five metrics in the prediction model point to limited attacking threat and vulnerability (att 17%, def 67%).

AS Roma’s recent momentum is almost the mirror opposite, captured in the form “WWWWD”. Four straight wins followed by a draw underpin their climb to fourth (70 points from 37 games) and highlight a strong balance between attack and defence (57 goals scored and 31 conceded, 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded per game). The prediction model’s last-five indicators reinforce this surge, with Roma rated at 87% for overall form, 100% in attack and 75% in defence over that short sample.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The recent history between these sides has swung back and forth, often with drama. On 28 September 2025, AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico (Serie A, season 2025, September 2025), a controlled home win that underlined the capital club’s superiority on the day.

Earlier that year, on 19 April 2025, AS Roma again edged Hellas Verona 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico (Serie A, season 2024, April 2025), a tighter contest decided by a single goal but still reinforcing Roma’s ability to manage these fixtures in Rome.

Verona’s reminder that this matchup can bite back came on 3 November 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, when Hellas Verona defeated AS Roma 3-2 (Serie A, season 2024, November 2024). That five-goal thriller in Verona showed the hosts can exploit home conditions and turn the game chaotic, even against a stronger squad.

Tactical Preview

Hellas Verona are expected to lean once more on a back-three system, most commonly the 3-5-2 that has been used in 25 league matches. Variants such as 3-5-1-1 and 3-4-2-1 have also appeared, but the core idea remains: a crowded midfield screen in front of a vulnerable defence (59 goals conceded in 37 games) and limited attacking output (25 goals in 37). Wide defenders like M. Frese, a defender with strong tackling numbers (79 tackles and 28 interceptions), and midfielders such as R. Gagliardini (73 tackles, 54 interceptions) and J. Akpa Akpro (39 tackles, 20 interceptions) are key to Verona’s attempt to disrupt Roma’s build-up. Up front, G. Orban offers one of their sharper attacking edges with 7 goals and 2 assists, but the team’s low scoring average (0.7 per match) suggests they will rely on counters and set pieces rather than sustained pressure.

AS Roma, by contrast, are structurally settled and confident. Their primary shape is a 3-4-2-1, used 29 times, with occasional switches to 3-4-1-2 and 3-5-2. This framework supports a well-balanced side that scores regularly (57 goals in 37 matches) while maintaining a strong defensive record (31 conceded). In the back line, defenders like G. Mancini (51 tackles, 47 interceptions) and Hermoso (36 tackles, 28 interceptions) anchor a unit that has delivered 17 clean sheets across home and away fixtures. Out wide and in midfield, Z. Çelik contributes both defensively (62 tackles, 21 interceptions) and in build-up, while Wesley adds bite and dynamism in midfield (53 tackles, 23 interceptions, plus one red card and one yellow-red card showing his combative edge).

In attack, Roma can overwhelm a fragile Verona back line. D. Malen, listed as an attacker, has 13 goals and 2 assists in 17 appearances, illustrating a clinical presence in the final third (46 shots, 29 on target). Around him, M. Soulé provides creativity and work rate from an attacking role, with 6 goals and 5 assists and an impressive 45 key passes, making him a primary chance-creator. With Roma averaging 1.5 goals per league game and Verona conceding 1.6, the tactical matchup heavily favours the visitors’ ability to generate and convert chances, especially if they can pin Verona’s wing-backs deep and isolate the home forwards.

Discipline could also play a part. Verona feature several heavy foulers such as R. Gagliardini (45 fouls committed, 10 yellow cards) and M. Frese (46 fouls, 8 yellows), while Roma’s Wesley and Z. Çelik have both seen red this year. Any early card could tilt the balance further in Roma’s favour, given their superior squad depth.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: Serie A, season 2025 — 24 May 2026.
• Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona.
• Prediction: null — Winner : AS Roma.
• Win Probabilities: Home 10% / Draw 45% / Away 45%.
• Model: Hellas Verona 31.0% — AS Roma 69.0%.

Betting Verdict

The market strongly leans towards AS Roma, with away odds clustered roughly around 1.30–1.35, while Hellas Verona are priced in the region of 9.00–12.00 and the draw around 4.70–5.50. Roma’s superior season numbers (70 points, 57 goals scored, 31 conceded) and red-hot recent form (“WWWWD”, last-five form 87% with 100% attack) align with their positive head-to-head results in 2025. Verona’s struggles (“DLDDL”, only 21 points and 25 goals all year) and fragile defence make an upset difficult to justify. On balance, following the model’s “Winner : AS Roma” advice looks reasonable, with any Verona-based bet more of a speculative long shot than a data-backed position.