Kylian Mbappé's Ballon d'Or Hopes Diminish Amid Real Madrid Struggles

Kylian Mbappé spent the summer reminding the world why Real Madrid moved mountains to get him. Eight goals in North America, a semi-final run, long spells where he looked simply untouchable. For a moment, the Ballon d’Or conversation bent in his direction.

Then Spain shut the door.

France’s exit has not only cut short another bid for international glory, it has also stripped away the one thing Mbappé needed most this year: a defining trophy. At club level, the 2025-26 season ended with Real Madrid completing back-to-back campaigns without a major title. For a player of his stature, that’s more than a frustration. It’s a problem in the Ballon d’Or race.

Because the rules of this game are brutal and clear. To stand on that Paris stage, you don’t just need goals and highlights. You need silverware that glitters from continents away. Champions League. World Cup. Euros. Without them, even a “ridiculous” goal tally can start to look like a footnote.

Jeremie Aliadière sees it exactly that way. Speaking to GOAL in association with Betinia NJ, the former France forward didn’t sugar-coat Mbappé’s position when asked if the wait for a first Ballon d’Or is set to go on.

“Yeah, I think so,” he said. “I think if he's had a fantastic year in terms of winning something with Real Madrid, then he probably could still be in the running but without winning anything with Madrid…”

Aliadière was quick to stress the individual brilliance. Mbappé “scored a ridiculous amount of goals and carried the team for most part of the season”. On a personal level, “he's had a fantastic season”. But the equation at the top of the game is unforgiving.

“Unfortunately, without winning any trophies we know the rules to be a Ballon d'Or. You've got to win, Champions League or World Cup or Euros.

“So, having not done that, I can't see him being the Ballon d'Or. It's a shame because I thought Harry Kane would have had a good shot if England went all the way as well, but same for him.”

Kane’s story mirrors Mbappé’s in cruel fashion: goals, leadership, influence – but no ultimate prize. No World Cup. No European Championship. No Champions League. No Ballon d’Or.

While the new generation wrestles with the demands of legacy, one familiar figure has quietly stepped back into the spotlight.

Messi, again

At 39, Lionel Messi should, by football’s usual logic, be drifting into nostalgia territory. Instead, he’s dragging Argentina back to another World Cup final, matching Mbappé’s eight-goal haul at the tournament and dictating games with the same icy clarity that defined Qatar 2022.

He has already defended his aura. Now he is trying to defend his crown.

A ninth Golden Ball at the World Cup is on the table if he can bend one more final to his will against Spain. If that happens, the Ballon d’Or picture changes from a debate to a formality.

Aliadière believes the tide is already turning in Messi’s favour.

“I think it’ll probably be one of Argentina,” he said. “Messi, if he wins it again, I think everybody's just going to be mesmerised by the age and what he's produced at the World Cup and forget that he plays in MLS for Inter Miami.”

That last line cuts to the heart of this campaign. Messi has not just been a national-team phenomenon. In 2025, he lifted MLS Cup with Inter Miami and walked away with MVP honours, bending a young league around his genius. The level may be questioned by some, but the impact is not.

Then came more drama in national colours. England were the latest to fall, beaten in a wild semi-final in Atlanta that only strengthened the sense that Argentina still live and breathe through their captain. Each decisive touch, each disguised pass, keeps the idea of another Ballon d’Or alive.

Former Brazil international and World Cup winner Kleberson summed up the feeling when he spoke to GOAL about Messi’s chances of pulling four clear of Cristiano Ronaldo in the Ballon d’Or count.

“Wow! That guy never stops!” he said. “Argentina has more chance of winning the World Cup with Messi than any other country, just because Messi is still playing at a good level.

“It’s different from Ronaldo. He is still playing at a level, but the players around Ronaldo, it’s not the same as Messi has with Argentina. It’s purity. What Portuguese players have and Argentine players have is completely different. That’s why Messi has a lot of chance.

“If he goes and wins the World Cup, 100 per cent he’s going to be up to win the Ballon d’Or again. He’s brilliant. Even Brazilian players and fans look at him and want to see good players win the Ballon d’Or and the World Cup - players that are a joy to see play. Messi is one of those.”

The contrast is stark. Mbappé, the new Galáctico, carries Real Madrid and lights up a World Cup, but walks away empty-handed. Messi, deep into what should be his twilight, stacks an MLS Cup, an MVP award and another World Cup final on top of an already absurd career.

The Ballon d’Or, as ever, is not just a prize for the best player. It’s a reward for the story that defines a season. Right now, that story still belongs to a 39-year-old from Rosario who refuses to let go.