What South Africa, South Korea and Czech Republic Must Do to Advance from Group A in World Cup 2026

The 2026 World Cup group stage is wrapping up, with teams fighting for a spot in the knockout rounds. Out of 48 nations, 32 will move on. The top two teams from each group automatically qualify, and then the eight best third-placed teams across all groups also advance. This means many teams still have hopes alive heading into the final matches.

Mexico has already secured their place in the next round after beating both South Africa and South Korea. They’ve claimed top spot in Group A thanks to a superior head-to-head record over South Korea, the only team that could match their points.

South Korea currently sits second with three points following a win in their opening game. Both South Africa and Czech Republic have one point each, leaving all three teams with chances to progress.

How South Korea Can Advance

South Korea needs at least a draw against South Africa in their last group match (Thursday 25 June, 2am BST) to guarantee moving on. A victory would boost them to six points and secure second place outright. If they draw, they'll reach four points — enough to stay ahead of Czech Republic based on their head-to-head record, since the Czechs can only reach four points as well.

A loss would drop South Korea below South Africa in the standings, making their advancement depend on the Czech Republic’s result versus Mexico. They might still finish third with three points if other results fall their way.

South Africa’s Path to the Round of 32

South Africa sits at the bottom of Group A with just one point from a draw with Czech Republic. To keep their hopes alive, they must defeat South Korea or outdo the Czech Republic's result in the final games to claim third place.

A win over South Korea would propel South Africa past them and bring them to four points, which should be enough to secure at least third place depending on the Mexico-Czech Republic outcome. Losing would almost certainly mean elimination, while a draw leaves them with two points, likely too few to qualify as one of the best third-place teams.

Czech Republic’s Chances of Progression

The Czech Republic faces the toughest challenge. They must beat Mexico in their final match to have a shot at advancing. A victory would give them four points, positioning them to finish third or even rank among the best eight third-place teams.

If South Africa loses to South Korea, the Czechs could hold onto third place with a win. A draw would leave them with two points, an unlikely total to move forward.

Head-to-Head Results Override Goal Difference

If teams end up tied on points, their rankings come down to head-to-head results first. For example, if Team A beats Team B in their group meeting and both finish level on points, Team A ranks higher.

When more than two teams share equal points, a mini-league involving just those teams is formed, ignoring results against others. Ranking follows points earned in these mini-matches, then goal difference and goals scored within this subset. If ties remain, overall group goal difference and goals scored are considered.

Further Tiebreakers: Fair Play and FIFA Ranking

If ties persist after all above steps, the Team Conduct Score (TCS) applies. This fair play metric deducts points for cards:

• Yellow card: -1 point
• Red card from two yellows: -3 points
• Straight red card: -4 points
• Yellow followed by straight red: -5 points

The team with the higher (closer to zero) score ranks better. Should the tie still stand, FIFA rankings from June decide who advances.

Determining the Best Eight Third-Place Teams

The top eight third-place teams are chosen primarily by points earned. If more than eight teams share the same points, goal difference breaks ties.

Generally, third-placed teams with four points or more qualify. Those with three points need strong goal differences to make the cut.