Messi’s Last World Cup: Group J Preview and Predictions

Anyone pencilling Argentina in for a gentle stroll through Group J would do well to rewind to Lusail, 2022. Two-nil up on the world, unbeaten in 36, and then Saudi Arabia tore up the script. Argentina lost their opener, needed second‑half goals to edge past Mexico and Poland, and still ended up with the trophy in their hands.

The lesson is obvious. World Cups don’t do processions. They do ambushes.

Here, waiting in the long grass, are three very different threats: an Algeria side rediscovering its edge, an Austria team drilled by Ralf Rangnick into one of Europe’s nastiest presses, and a Jordan squad tasting the tournament for the first time, but not remotely content just to make up the numbers.

At the centre of it all stands Lionel Messi, 38 years old, wearing the Argentina armband at what will almost certainly be his final World Cup, chasing a back‑to‑back triumph no one has managed since Brazil in 1962.

This group might yet become his farewell tour. It could just as easily become someone else’s story.

Algeria: Mahrez Leads a Restless Return

Algeria come back to the World Cup after missing two editions, still haunted by how close they came in 2014. That night in Porto Alegre, they pushed Germany to extra time in the last 16 and left the pitch with the feeling that something bigger had slipped away.

Twelve years on, they arrive in North America with a similar ambition: get out of the group, then see how far the chaos of knockout football can carry them.

Vladimir Petkovic is the man trusted with that task. The Bosnian and Herzegovinian coach built his reputation with Switzerland, steering them to the 2018/19 Nations League finals and the Euro 2020 quarter-finals, where they knocked out France on penalties before falling the same way to Spain. His teams are organised, stubborn and rarely overawed.

This squad has a harder edge than some of Algeria’s more romantic sides of the past. Mohamed Amoura, sharp and relentless, scored 10 times in qualifying – seven more than anyone else in their group – including a hat-trick against Mozambique. His season with Wolfsburg told a different story: eight goals in his first 19 Bundesliga games, then an 11-match drought. If he catches fire again, Algeria’s ceiling rises.

There is craft, too. Houssem Aouar, once capped by France, now brings Roma and Lyon experience into midfield. Amine Gouiri, back fit after injury, reminded everyone of his threat with two goals in a 7-0 friendly demolition of Guatemala in March. Nabil Bentaleb, now at Lille, adds steel and know-how in the centre.

At the back, Luca Zidane arrives with a famous surname and his own scars, having recovered from a broken jaw and chin with Granada in April to make his first World Cup squad. Out wide, Anis Hadj Moussa comes off a breakout season at Feyenoord, where he produced 14 goals and seven assists and played like a man who refuses to stay quiet.

Rayan Ait-Nouri’s club campaign was uneven – unused in Manchester City’s FA Cup and EFL Cup final wins, drifting in and out of Pep Guardiola’s plans between an ankle injury and AFCON – but he remains a dynamic option on the flank, especially after a run of seven straight starts in February and March.

Over all of them, as ever, looms Riyad Mahrez.

Mahrez: The Standard-Bearer

Now at Al-Ahli in the Saudi Pro League, Mahrez is chasing Algeria’s all-time scoring record. He needs eight more to get there. At 35, with 38 goals and 43 assists from 113 caps, he is the captain, the reference point and still their most dangerous player in the final third.

His CV is ridiculous. The miracle title with Leicester City in 2016. African Footballer of the Year that same season. Algeria’s second AFCON crown in 2019. The treble with Manchester City in 2023. He hit three goals in two games as Algeria strolled through the 2025 AFCON group stage.

This is not a farewell tour. It is a player who still expects to decide matches.

Algeria’s Path

The fixture list is clear: beat Jordan, take something from Austria, and the final group game between those two European-chasing nations should decide who goes through automatically behind Argentina – or, if the champions stumble, who takes advantage.

With eight third-placed teams advancing, Algeria do not need perfection. They need clarity. On their fifth World Cup appearance, the expectation is simple: reach the knockouts again. Anything less will feel like a step backwards for Les Fennecs.

Argentina: Champions With a Target on Their Backs

No one has successfully defended a World Cup in more than six decades. Argentina arrive determined to end that drought and to send Messi out in a way that fits his legend.

Lionel Scaloni has built the most coherent Argentina side of the modern era. Copa America 2021. World Cup 2022. Copa America 2024. He is already the most decorated national-team coach in the country’s history, the man who ended a 36-year wait for a third star on the shirt.

The spine that conquered Qatar remains. Emiliano Martinez, the penalty-box showman, still has the gloves. Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez anchor a defence that mixes aggression with control. In front of them, Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez form a midfield that can smother, dictate and create in equal measure.

Up front, Scaloni has options that most coaches can only envy. Julian Alvarez can play off the left, through the middle, or buzzing around a central striker. Lautaro Martinez leads the line, a pure No 9 with a mean streak and a ruthless finish.

There are changes. Angel Di Maria, scorer of some of the most important goals in Argentina’s recent history, has retired from international football. Franco Mastantuono, the teenage Real Madrid midfielder so heavily watched during qualifying, did not make the final squad – a reminder that this is a group built on trust and continuity, not hype.

The only real scare has been Messi himself. A hamstring issue with Inter Miami in May raised alarms, but Scaloni kept the message calm, describing the early reports as “not that bad”. The expectation is that he will be ready for the opener against Algeria in Kansas City.

Messi: One Last World Cup

Messi’s presence in North America is more than a sporting event. It is a cultural moment.

This will be his sixth World Cup, a record. No one seriously believes there will be a seventh. He finished as top scorer in CONMEBOL qualifying with eight goals and still operates, even now, as the single most important figure in this team’s structure and psyche.

Every touch will be filmed, every free-kick dissected, every quiet moment treated as a clue to what comes next. Argentina know the group should be theirs. The real questions start in the knockouts.

For now, though, Group J is the stage for his final opening act.

Austria: Rangnick’s Relentless Press Arrives on the Big Stage

Austria have waited 28 years to come back to a World Cup. They do not intend to be tourists.

Ralf Rangnick is the architect of that ambition. Since taking over, he has dragged the national team into the modern game, imposing a clear identity built on aggressive pressing, quick transitions and high-intensity football that mirrors the Bundesliga he knows so well.

The results are already visible. At Euro 2024, Austria reached the last 16 after finishing above France and the Netherlands in their group. World Cup qualification followed, and this squad might be the strongest they have assembled since finishing third in 1954.

The backbone of the team runs through Germany. Fourteen of the 26 players are based in the Bundesliga, many of them shaped by the Red Bull system Rangnick helped design. The RB Leipzig trio of Christoph Baumgartner, Xaver Schlager and Nicolas Seiwald give him a midfield that presses on instinct.

Marcel Sabitzer, now with 95 caps, brings experience and a knack for big moments from Borussia Dortmund. Konrad Laimer starts at Bayern Munich and covers more ground than most opponents care to chase, driving the wide midfield lanes.

David Alaba, at 33, wears the armband. His positional versatility and calm under pressure make him the natural leader. Around him, a new generation is emerging. Carney Chukwuemeka has chosen Austria over England. Paul Wanner, 20 and at PSV Eindhoven, could use this tournament as his launchpad.

Marko Arnautovic, 36, travels as vice-captain and all-time record scorer with 47 goals in 132 caps. He knows this is almost certainly his final major tournament. He will play like a man who understands that.

Baumgartner: The Sharp Edge

If Austria are to trouble Argentina and Algeria, they will need goals from everywhere. Christoph Baumgartner arrives ready to provide them.

The Leipzig midfielder has just delivered the best season of his career: 13 goals and 10 assists in the Bundesliga, numbers that put him among the most productive central players in Germany. He times his runs brilliantly, finds gaps between the lines and finishes cleanly in tight spaces.

Leave him untracked, and he will tilt games.

Austria’s Ambition

The opener against Jordan in Santa Clara is a gift and a trap. Win it, and Austria seize control of their campaign. Drop points, and the pressure spikes immediately before facing Algeria.

Rangnick’s structure, depth and clarity of purpose make Austria the likeliest candidate to push Argentina for top spot. They will not fear anyone in this group. The only question is whether their intensity can hold across three games in quick succession on the biggest stage of all.

Jordan: Newcomers With Nothing to Lose

Jordan arrive at their first World Cup carrying history on their backs and freedom in their minds.

They earned it the hard way. Second place in a brutal AFC third-round group behind South Korea and ahead of Iraq, Oman, Palestine and Kuwait. No favours, no shortcuts.

Coach Jamal Sellami, a Moroccan with a strong track record in his home league, has been open about his inspiration. He watched Morocco’s run to the semi-finals in Qatar – the first African and Arab side to go that far – and wants Jordan to draw belief from that story, not just nostalgia.

Half the squad, 13 of the 26, play their club football in Jordan. That gives the team a familiarity and cohesion that many bigger nations lack at the start of a tournament. They know each other’s runs, their habits, their flaws.

They also know what they are missing. Striker Yazan Al-Naimat, one of their key attacking threats, suffered an ACL injury in December and could not make the squad. For a team with limited depth, that is a heavy blow.

Captain Ehsan Haddad leads the defence from Al-Hussein, a steadying presence at the back. Yazan Al-Arab, based at FC Seoul, adds international experience and composure.

Al-Tamari: The Hope of a Nation

All roads in this team lead to Mousa Al-Tamari.

The Rennes forward is widely regarded as the best player Jordan has ever produced. The first Jordanian to play in Ligue 1, he carries the nickname “Jordanian Messi” at home, a nod to his dribbling and flair rather than a direct comparison.

For Jordan to shock anyone in this group, Al-Tamari will almost certainly have to be at the heart of it – breaking lines, winning fouls, drawing defenders out of shape. This is his stage as much as his country’s.

Jordan’s Shot at History

Their opening game, against Austria in Santa Clara, is their most realistic opportunity. A point there would be a statement. A win would send shockwaves through the group.

Anything taken off Algeria would be historic. Then comes Argentina at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, the final group match and the biggest night Jordanian football has ever known, whatever the table says by then.

They arrive as underdogs. They do not intend to leave as footnotes.

Group J belongs, on paper, to Argentina. Yet World Cups are not played on paper, and the defending champions know better than anyone how quickly a script can be ripped up.

Mahrez chasing records. Baumgartner in the form of his life. Al-Tamari carrying a nation’s dreams. And Messi, walking into what feels like his last World Cup with one question hanging over North America.

Is this the coronation of a dynasty, or the year someone dares to knock the crown off?