Kylian Mbappé's Ballon d'Or Hopes Dim Amid Messi's Dominance

Kylian Mbappé went to North America with a point to prove and, for a while, it looked like he’d dragged himself straight into the heart of the Ballon d’Or argument.

Eight goals. A charge to the semi-finals. A Real Madrid “Galactico” carrying his country, again, towards the brink of global domination. It felt like the season when narrative, numbers and status would finally collide in his favour.

Then Spain happened. And at club level, so did something even more damaging.

For the second year running, Real Madrid finished a campaign without a major trophy. No Champions League. No La Liga. No defining club moment to anchor Mbappé’s individual brilliance. In the Ballon d’Or race, that matters more than any YouTube highlights reel.

Mbappé’s brilliance, Messi’s shadow

The rules of this game are unwritten, but everyone knows them. To lift the Ballon d’Or, you usually need the biggest prizes: a Champions League, a World Cup, a Euros. Without them, even the most spectacular season starts to look a little thin on the final ballot.

Jeremie Aliadière sees the picture clearly. Speaking to GOAL in association with Betinia NJ, the former France international didn’t hesitate when asked if Mbappé is likely to see his Ballon d’Or drought continue.

“Yeah, I think so,” he said. If Mbappé had turned his prolific year into silverware with Real Madrid, Aliadière believes he “probably could still be in the running.” But he didn’t. And that, in this arena, is unforgiving.

Aliadière still praised the forward’s campaign: a “ridiculous amount of goals,” a player who “carried the team for most part of the season.” On a personal level, it was everything you’d expect from a superstar in his prime. On the honours board, though, it was empty. And that is where Messi walks back into the room.

Messi, again

While Mbappé’s year stalled at the semi-final stage and in a trophyless dressing room, Lionel Messi has been busy reassembling his case as football’s eternal benchmark.

At 39, he has dragged Argentina to yet another World Cup final, scoring eight times along the way. The Albiceleste are one game from defending the crown they lifted in Qatar in 2022. One game from pushing their captain into territory no one has ever known: a ninth Ballon d’Or.

Aliadière can see the tide turning.

“I think it’ll probably be one of Argentina,” he said, before pointing straight to the obvious name. If Messi wins it again, he argued, the world will be “mesmerised by the age and what he's produced at the World Cup and forget that he plays in MLS for Inter Miami.”

That last line is telling. Messi’s club address has shifted, but the standards around him haven’t. In 2025, he took MLS by the throat, winning MLS Cup and MVP honours with Inter Miami. The level may be different from Europe’s elite, but the output is familiar: goals, assists, and a team built entirely around his genius.

Age, trophies and the cold logic of the vote

This is where Mbappé’s problem becomes brutally simple. He can dominate for 90 minutes, for nine months, for multiple competitions. He can score in bunches and carry Real Madrid through rough spells. But when the votes are cast, the spotlight lands on medals.

Aliadière summed it up with the kind of bluntness that defines this award: “Without winning any trophies we know the rules to be a Ballon d'Or. You've got to win, Champions League or World Cup or Euros.”

By that logic, Harry Kane also falls away. The England captain put together a season that had Ballon d’Or potential written all over it. If England had gone all the way, Aliadière believes Kane “would have had a good shot.” They didn’t. Same story. Same punishment.

Messi, though, keeps ticking every box that matters. International dominance. Big-game moments. A World Cup final on the horizon. And, crucially, a narrative that voters struggle to resist: a 39-year-old still bending the sport to his will.

His latest reminder came in Atlanta, where England were dispatched in a dramatic semi-final. Another knockout masterclass, another night when he shaped the outcome with that familiar blend of timing and technique. Another entry on a Ballon d’Or résumé that refuses to close.

Ronaldo, Messi and a widening gap

The Messi–Cristiano Ronaldo rivalry has defined an era, but the gap in Ballon d’Or terms could be about to stretch beyond reach.

Former MLS midfielder and World Cup winner Kleberson has no doubts about what another Argentina triumph would mean. Speaking to GOAL, he was asked if Messi could win yet another Ballon d’Or and move four clear of Ronaldo.

“Wow! That guy never stops!” was his first reaction.

For Kleberson, Messi remains the difference-maker that tilts an entire tournament. “Argentina has more chance of winning the World Cup with Messi than any other country, just because Messi is still playing at a good level,” he said.

Ronaldo, he pointed out, is still operating at a decent level himself. But the environment is different. “The players around Ronaldo, it’s not the same as Messi has with Argentina,” Kleberson argued. “It’s purity. What Portuguese players have and Argentine players have is completely different. That’s why Messi has a lot of chance.”

The conclusion was emphatic: “If he goes and wins the World Cup, 100 per cent he’s going to be up to win the Ballon d’Or again. He’s brilliant.”

Coming from a Brazilian, that carries extra weight. Kleberson even noted that Brazilian players and fans want to see footballers like Messi – “a joy to see play” – win both the World Cup and the Ballon d’Or. Respect, in this case, has long crossed national borders.

A race that feels familiar

So here we are again. Mbappé, the heir apparent, with numbers that would define almost any other player’s career, finds himself staring up at the same silhouette on the mountain.

He has the goals. He has the status. He has the club and the country to dominate the sport for years. But the Ballon d’Or, for now, still bends towards the man who has spent two decades rewriting its history.

If Messi walks away from another World Cup final with the trophy in his hands, the argument ends. The ninth Golden Ball will almost pick itself.

And Mbappé, for all his brilliance, will be left chasing a legend who refuses to step aside.