Gameweek 38: Final Free Hit and Rotation Strategies

When the season shrinks to a single Sunday, Fantasy Premier League stops being a long game and turns into a street fight. Chasers need punts. Leaders fear rotation. And every leaked team sheet can rip up a week’s planning in seconds.

Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar leans straight into the chaos. Rotation is the storm hanging over Gameweek 38, and the first task is working out where the rain actually falls.

Who Really Has Something to Play For?

Strip away the noise and the picture is clearer than it feels.

The live battles are for the European spots – roughly 6th to 8th – and the scrap to avoid relegation between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Those stakes matter for minutes.

That context makes heavy rotation unlikely at Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, Sunderland, Brentford, West Ham and Spurs. Managers in those dugouts have little reason to tear up their XIs. Your assets from those clubs are, on paper, in good shape to start.

Does that automatically make them the best transfer targets? Not always. When both teams are mentally “on the beach”, matches can open up and throw off the usual logic. But the key takeaway is simple: if you already own players from those sides, you probably don’t need to panic.

The trickier calls come from the two teams who dominate most squads: Arsenal and Manchester City.

Arsenal: Risk on the Stars, Doubt on the Ceiling

Mikel Arteta kept his cards close in his press conference, but training ground clues have slipped out.

David Raya, Bukayo Saka and William Saliba all worked individually, away from the main group on Thursday. They could still start on Sunday; that door is very much open. Yet of the three, Saka and Saliba look the likelier candidates for a rest.

There is a clear logic. Noni Madueke did not even get off the bench against Burnley. Handing him minutes against Crystal Palace while protecting Saka – perhaps for a late cameo – would hardly be a surprise. Raya, meanwhile, has already secured the Golden Glove but still has a personal record in sight: the most clean sheets by an Arsenal goalkeeper in a single league season. That kind of milestone can sway a manager.

Up front, the picture blurs further. Viktor Gyokeres might start, but Gabriel Jesus or Kai Havertz could just as easily lead the line. None of those options scream “explosive Arsenal haul”.

For Zophar, the verdict is blunt: this does not look like a fixture to chase. If you have free transfers, he would move Arsenal attackers on rather than bring them in. If it comes to a straight choice, he would sell Saka before Gyokeres.

Manchester City: Pep’s Possible Farewell and the Etihad Party

Then there is Manchester City, where narrative and numbers collide.

This could be Pep Guardiola’s last game in charge. At the time of writing, he has not confirmed it, but Zophar expects clarity in the pre-match press conference. The players will know what is at stake emotionally. Add in the opening of City’s new stand – 7,000 extra fans at the Etihad – and the stage is set for a statement performance.

Erling Haaland has a World Cup ahead of him this summer, which raises the obvious question: does Pep protect his striker? Rest is possible, but Zophar leans towards a start, perhaps with an early substitution once the job is done.

Phil Foden looks well placed to begin too, which casts a shadow over Rayan Cherki’s minutes. Nico O’Reilly is harder to read, in the same way Antoine Semenyo’s role can be unpredictable.

The fixture itself has the feel of a shoot-out. Aston Villa arrive still basking in a midweek Europa League win, and that kind of emotional high can drain legs. City, with a point to prove and a crowd to impress, could run riot.

Zophar’s stance: keep Haaland and O’Reilly if you own them, but treat Cherki and Semenyo as expendable.

Aston Villa and Manchester United: One Side Rotates, One Side Thins Out

On Aston Villa, the message is short and sharp: expect mass rotation. These are obvious sells or bench candidates. Anyone still holding Villa assets at this stage probably knows the risk already.

At Manchester United, the picture is cleaner. Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo are all expected to start. Casemiro is out, as Michael Carrick has already confirmed, and there is little FPL interest in the rest of the squad. The core United picks look safe.

Liverpool and the Odd Ones Out

Liverpool should go strong. Dominik Szoboszlai and Virgil van Dijk are in line to start, with Mohamed Salah also likely, depending on what Arne Slot reveals in his press conference.

Salah remains a live captaincy option, even on the final day, and not just for sentimental reasons.

Beyond that, there are few highly owned assets that really move the needle. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is one of the rare exceptions and should start.

On hits, Zophar is clear: he does not like them in Gameweek 38, especially when they are based on guesswork about rotation rather than concrete team leaks. Those leaks will come, and they will be plentiful. Use your bench. Let the chaos work for you instead of paying four points to chase shadows.

The Free Hit XI: Chasing from the Shadows

For managers on a Free Hit trying to climb past rivals stacked with Arsenal and City players, the final day offers a different kind of fun: the pure differential XI.

Defence

At the back, Zophar narrows his focus to two defences: West Ham and Spurs. Both have something real at stake and both offer defenders with attacking threat.

Pedro Porro and Konstantinos Mavropanos stand out. They are not just clean-sheet punts; they carry a genuine upside going forward.

John Stones also enters the frame. This is likely to be his last game for Manchester City, and that narrative, combined with his importance to Guardiola’s structure, makes a start highly plausible.

Midfield

Midfield is where the Free Hit can really twist the knife.

Jack Hinshelwood sits top among midfielders for big chances over the last six Gameweeks. With Casemiro out, Brighton should fancy themselves to find space and goals. Hinshelwood is not just a quirky pick; he has the underlying numbers to justify the gamble.

Then there is Salah. One last hurrah for the FPL king? He is a strong captaincy candidate, but Zophar actually prefers Hinshelwood as a pure upside play in certain setups.

Burnley’s clash with Wolverhampton Wanderers could turn into a free-for-all. Neither side will want to finish bottom, and that desperation often breeds chances. Zian Flemming would have been the preferred option, but with forward slots more appealing, Jaidon Anthony gets the nod in midfield instead.

Morgan Gibbs-White rounds out the core. Nottingham Forest showed against Manchester United that defending is no longer a priority, yet on their own patch they should still create plenty against a Bournemouth side sitting in the bottom five for expected goals conceded in away matches.

Forwards

Up front, the stakes are clear.

Richarlison and Jarrod Bowen both have penalties, both usually play 90 minutes, and both are central to their clubs’ survival hopes. When everything is on the line, managers lean on their talismans. That is exactly what you want in Gameweek 38.

The final piece is William Osula. He ranks in the top three for expected goals over the last six Gameweeks, and with Marco Silva’s departure looming, Fulham’s match at Craven Cottage could easily unravel into a wild, open contest.

It is the sort of fixture where an in-form, under-the-radar forward can flip a mini-league on its head.

The 2025/26 FPL season closes with familiar emotions: relief, regret, and the nagging thought that one braver call could have changed everything. Zophar signs off having steered managers through every twist and turn, from the early template battles to this final-day roll of the dice.

The next campaign will come soon enough. The only question is who will spend the summer replaying Gameweek 38 in their head, and who will walk away knowing their last gamble landed.