Levante vs Mallorca: High-Stakes La Liga Clash

Levante and Mallorca meet at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in a high‑pressure La Liga clash, with both sides locked on 39 points after 36 matches and currently in the relegation places (Levante 19th, Mallorca 18th). The stakes are enormous: with only two rounds left, this is effectively a survival six‑pointer where avoiding defeat is almost as important as winning.

In terms of overall season numbers from the standings, the teams are remarkably similar. Both have 10 wins, 9 draws and 17 losses, and both have scored 44 goals. The difference is defensive: Levante have conceded 59 (goal difference -15), while Mallorca have allowed 55 (goal difference -11). At home, Levante are 6‑5‑7 with 24 scored and 28 conceded; Mallorca’s away record is far weaker at 2‑3‑13, with 16 scored and 34 conceded. That away fragility is a key factor for this matchup.

Recent form strongly favours the hosts. Levante’s last‑five index in the prediction data shows 67% form, with 9 goals scored and 9 conceded (1.8 for and 1.8 against per match). Their attack rating over those five is 60%, indicating they are creating and converting at a decent clip, even if the defence (40%) remains leaky. Mallorca’s last‑five form is only 33%, with 5 goals scored and 7 conceded (1.0 for, 1.4 against), and a modest 33% attacking index. Defensively they rate slightly better than Levante over that small sample (53%), but the combination of poor away record and mediocre recent results weighs against them.

Over the full league campaign, both sides are mid‑table in attack and below average in defence. Levante average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match; Mallorca also average 1.2 for, but 1.5 against. Levante’s goal timings show a strong late push, with 14 of their 44 league goals (31.8%) coming from the 76th minute onwards, while they also concede heavily late (16 of 59, 27.1% after 76 minutes). Mallorca are similar: 24 of their 44 goals (54.5%) arrive from the 61st minute onwards, but they also concede heavily just before and after the break. This profile supports a game that may open up in the second half rather than early on.

Head-to-Head Data

Head‑to‑head data (excluding club friendlies) paints a balanced picture. On 2025‑10‑26 in La Liga at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca and Levante drew 1‑1, with Levante leading 1‑0 at half‑time before being pegged back. On 2022‑01‑08 in La Liga at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante won 2‑0 at home. Earlier that same La Liga campaign, on 2021‑10‑02 at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca beat Levante 1‑0. Going further back, on 2020‑07‑09 in La Liga at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca won 2‑0, while on 2019‑11‑22 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante won 2‑1 in La Liga. In Segunda División, there was a 1‑1 draw at Iberostar Estadi on 2017‑03‑25 and a 2‑1 Levante home win at Ciutat de València on 2016‑10‑15. In La Liga 2012, they drew 1‑1 in Palma on 2013‑05‑05 and Levante won 4‑0 at home on 2012‑12‑09. The pattern is clear: Levante tend to be stronger in Valencia, Mallorca more competitive at home.

Official Prediction Model

The official prediction model leans clearly towards the hosts: 45% home, 45% draw, only 10% away. The advice is “Double chance: Levante or draw”, with the winner comment “Win or draw” for Levante. The goals projection flags both sides under 2.5 team goals, aligning with a relatively tight, low‑scoring contest.

Market prices broadly agree that Levante are favourites but not overwhelming. Home odds cluster around 2.10–2.20 (implied probability roughly 45–47%), the draw around 3.25–3.47 (about 28–30%), and Mallorca 3.13–3.66 (around 26–30%), with some books like SBO slightly shorter on the away side. Compared to the model’s just 10% away probability, the market appears more optimistic on Mallorca, which suggests the value is on backing Levante not to lose rather than chasing the away win.

Betting verdict: the data‑driven play is to follow the official advice and back Levante on the double chance (Home or Draw). For those targeting the 1X2, Levante to win at around 2.15–2.20 is a justifiable, slightly aggressive stance given their superior recent form and Mallorca’s very poor away record. A cautious side angle, consistent with the goal projections, would be to pair Levante or Draw with under 3.5 total goals in bet builders, anticipating a tense, low‑to‑medium scoring relegation battle.