Burnley vs Wolves: Premier League Final Day Showdown

Burnley host Wolves at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in a final‑day Premier League meeting between the bottom two, with both already set for the Championship. Pride, minor prize money and avoiding the wooden spoon are the main incentives, and the market has framed this as almost a coin‑flip: Burnley are narrow favourites at home, but the modelled edge in the raw prediction data leans towards Wolves on the double‑chance.

Burnley come in 19th with 21 points from 37 matches (4‑9‑24, goal difference -37). Their home record is very weak: 2‑6‑10 from 18 games, with 17 scored and 28 conceded. That is 0.9 goals for and 1.6 against on average at Turf Moor. Recent form is poor: the standings form string “LDLLL” confirms a struggling side (0‑1‑4 in the last five league games). The prediction module rates Burnley’s last‑five overall form at 7%, with attack at 33% and defence at 8%; they have scored 4 and conceded 11 in those five, averaging 0.8 for and 2.2 against. They are conceding heavily and rarely stringing positive results together.

Wolves are bottom in 20th with 19 points (3‑10‑24, goal difference -41). Their away record is even worse than Burnley’s home return: 0‑5‑13 from 18 away matches, with just 7 goals scored and 33 conceded. That is 0.4 goals for and 1.8 against per away game. Their recent league form is also very poor, “DLDLL” (0‑2‑3), but the prediction engine still grades their last‑five form slightly better than Burnley’s at 13%, with attack at 17% and defence at 25%, scoring 2 and conceding 9 (0.4 for, 1.8 against). Overall comparison metrics in the prediction data give Wolves a 54.2% edge versus 45.8% for Burnley, with Wolves rated better on form (67% vs 33%) and defence (55% vs 45%), while Burnley edge the attack metric (67% vs 33%).

Head-to-Head

Head‑to‑head data (excluding friendlies for competitive context) shows a mixed pattern. On 26 October 2025 in the Premier League at Molineux Stadium, Burnley won 3‑2 away after a 2‑2 half‑time scoreline. Earlier, on 28 August 2024 in the League Cup 2nd Round, also at Molineux Stadium, Wolves beat Burnley 2‑0, leading 1‑0 at half‑time. At Turf Moor on 2 April 2024 in the Premier League, the sides drew 1‑1, with both goals before the break. On 5 December 2023 in the Premier League at Molineux Stadium, Wolves won 1‑0, again 1‑0 at half‑time. Going further back in the Premier League at Turf Moor, Burnley beat Wolves 1‑0 on 24 April 2022, while at Molineux Stadium on 1 December 2021 they drew 0‑0. On 25 April 2021 at Molineux Stadium, Burnley won 4‑0, and on 21 December 2020 at Turf Moor Burnley won 2‑1. Finally, on 15 July 2020 at Turf Moor, they drew 1‑1. The friendly on 9 July 2022 at Sir Jack Hayward Training Ground (3‑0 to Wolves) confirms Wolves’ ability to hurt Burnley, but should not be over‑weighted for betting.

The official prediction model clearly sides with the visitors in terms of value protection rather than outright victory. It assigns win probabilities of 10% Burnley, 45% draw, 45% Wolves, and explicitly advises: “Double chance : draw or Wolves”. It also projects low scoring, with both teams tagged “-1.5” in the goals field, consistent with their season‑long underperformance in attack and the under/over distributions (very few matches going over 2.5 goals for either side).

Market odds roughly reflect a finely balanced game: across major bookmakers, Burnley are around 2.45–2.56, the draw 3.18–3.66, and Wolves 2.60–2.84. That implies the market very slightly prefers Burnley due to home advantage, whereas the model’s percentages marginally favour Wolves not to lose.

Betting verdict: aligning strictly with the official prediction data and current prices, the most data‑driven angle is to follow the model’s “Double chance : draw or Wolves”. It captures Wolves’ slight statistical edge and Burnley’s fragile form while respecting the market’s near‑coin‑flip view. For those seeking a secondary angle, the low‑scoring profile of both teams suggests a cautious lean to under 2.5 goals, but the core recommended bet remains the double chance on draw or Wolves.