Cape Verde Defies Expectations at World Cup

Cape Verde keep ripping up the script. Spain held. Uruguay held. A supposed minnow refusing to play its assigned role at this World Cup.

Plenty of fans saw it coming this time. Not many, but more than before. When Cape Verde faced Spain, a staggering 99.65% of players on the BBC’s new predictor game backed them to lose. Against Uruguay, that figure dropped to 83%. Belief is creeping in, one result at a time.

The crowd-sourced wisdom is starting to bite elsewhere too. Across the second round of 24 group fixtures, users outperformed both BBC Sport predictions expert Chris Sutton and AI. Sutton improved on his first set of results, climbing from 12 correct calls to 14. The AI model – powered by Microsoft Copilot Chat and asked simply to “predict the results of the second round of World Cup group games” – nudged up from 13 to 15.

The users, though, surged. From 13 correct in the opening batch to 18 out of 24. A serious jump. The question now is whether they can hold their nerve when the stakes rise again in the final round of group matches, with heavyweight fixtures such as Scotland v Brazil and England v Panama on the slate.

Sutton has gone all in: he is predicting the outcome of all 104 games and has already nailed his colours to the mast on how each of the 12 groups will finish. The BBC predictor game gives everyone else a simpler task – pick a winner or call a draw – but the pressure of getting it right is starting to feel very real.

Now the final group games arrive, and with them a different kind of tension: rotation, risk management and a few superstar selection calls.

Mexico v Czech Republic – rotation in the rarefied air

Mexico City, Thursday, 25 June, 02:00 BST. Estadio Azteca. Altitude, noise, and a home side already through as group winners.

Mexico’s job is done in terms of qualification. Top spot is secured, so changes are coming. That opens the door, at least in theory, for the Czech Republic, who must win to have any chance of reaching the last 32.

They will not find a generous host. Mexico are back in the stadium where they thumped South Africa, with the crowd and the thin air on their side. As Sutton’s 5 live commentary partner Alistair Bruce-Ball put it, this is about pride now. Mexico will want to put on a show for their own people, even with a rotated side, and the conditions will test the Czechs as much as the football.

Sutton still leans towards the upset the Czechs need. His call: 0-1 to the Czech Republic. The AI sees goals, but the same outcome: a 2-1 Czech win.

Argentina v Jordan – Messi wrapped in cotton wool

Dallas, Sunday, 28 June, 03:00. A different kind of selection dilemma.

Argentina have wrapped up their group. The next logical step is to wrap up Lionel Messi. Sutton expects changes, and he believes Messi will be one of the players left out.

From a tournament perspective, it makes sense. Rest him now, save his legs, sharpen his chances of lifting the trophy. It does nothing for his Golden Boot hopes or his tally as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer. His fans will not enjoy seeing him on the bench, but managers think in trophies, not individual awards.

Even without him, Sutton sees a gulf in class. Jordan, he says, simply cannot live with Argentina in front of goal. His prediction is ruthless: 0-3. The AI lands on exactly the same scoreline: 3-0 to Argentina.

Portugal v Colombia – Ronaldo scores, but is it enough?

Miami, Sunday, 28 June, 00:30. A group on a knife-edge.

Portugal know the equation: they need a win to finish top. Sutton watched them dismantle Uzbekistan in their previous outing, but he expects a far more stubborn test here against Colombia.

This is where he goes against the grain. He calls a twist, backing Colombia to dig in and take a point. In his script, Cristiano Ronaldo still dominates the storyline, scoring both of Portugal’s goals, but the draw costs them top spot.

Sutton’s verdict: 2-2. The AI backs Portugal to get the job done, 2-1, and secure the win they need.

Ronaldo, Sutton jokes, will just carry on scoring until the 2040 World Cup anyway.

England v Panama – Tuchel under pressure to respond

New York, Saturday, 27 June, 22:00. England arrive with questions to answer.

Thomas Tuchel’s half-time team talk against Ghana has already become a talking point. Against Croatia, his interval intervention drew praise as England turned a tight game into an impressive win. Against Ghana, the same trick fell flat.

Now comes Panama, and Tuchel cannot afford another misfire. England need to win. Sutton expects changes, but not a full reset. Harry Kane, he says, will start. On the flanks, he can see Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford coming in to add pace and incision.

Sutton is clear about what he wants to see: Saka in from the start instead of Noni Madueke, and Nico O’Reilly at left-back ahead of Djed Spence, whom he sees as the more complete footballer.

Panama have been stubborn so far, losing 1-0 in both of their games. Tight, organised, awkward. Sutton still believes England will find a more comfortable margin this time. Kane, after that glaring late miss against Ghana, is tipped to respond in the way he usually does – by scoring.

His prediction: 0-3 to England. The AI matches him again: 3-0.

The fans, the expert and the algorithms have all nailed their colours to the mast. Now the final group games will decide who really understands this World Cup – and who has just been guessing in the dark.