Cremonese vs Pisa: Serie A Relegation Clash Analysis

Cremonese host Pisa at Stadio Giovanni Zini in a high‑pressure Serie A clash between two sides stuck in the relegation zone. Cremonese come into this round 36 fixture in 18th place with 28 points (6‑10‑19, goals 27‑53), while Pisa sit bottom in 20th with 18 points (2‑12‑21, goals 25‑63). Despite the table suggesting Cremonese are clear favourites, the prediction model and odds paint a more nuanced picture.

Looking at underlying form, both teams are in poor shape, but Pisa are clearly worse. Cremonese’s official league form string is long and erratic, yet the prediction feed rates their last‑five form at 7%, with just 2 goals scored and 9 conceded (0.4 for, 1.8 against on average). Pisa’s last‑five profile is even weaker: 0% form, also 2 scored and 9 conceded. Over the full league campaign, Cremonese average 0.8 goals for and 1.5 against per match; Pisa average 0.7 for and 1.8 against. So while neither attack is convincing, Pisa’s defence is significantly more fragile, especially away (40 conceded in 17 away games, 2.4 per match).

At home, Cremonese have only 2 wins from 17, but 7 draws suggest they are competitive: 14 scored, 25 conceded. Pisa away are winless in 17, with 8 draws and 9 losses, scoring 16 and conceding 40. That profile aligns closely with the prediction engine’s overall comparison: Pisa are given a 56.0% edge in the total comparison metric versus 44.0% for Cremonese, but that is driven by historical match‑up and goal metrics, not by recent results, where the form comparison is 100% Cremonese vs 0% Pisa.

Head-to-Head Data

Head‑to‑head data (excluding the friendly) shows a consistent pattern of Pisa being hard to beat in this matchup. On 2025‑11‑07 in Serie A at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa beat Cremonese 1‑0. Earlier in Serie B, on 2025‑05‑13 at the same venue, Pisa won 2‑1. On 2024‑11‑03 in Serie B at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Pisa again prevailed 3‑1 away. Cremonese’s most recent home success in the league against Pisa came on 2024‑05‑01 in Serie B at Stadio Giovanni Zini, a 2‑1 win. Going further back, on 2023‑12‑02 in Serie B at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, the sides drew 0‑0. On 2022‑03‑13 in Serie B in Pisa, the hosts won 3‑0. On 2021‑10‑28 in Serie B at Stadio Giovanni Zini, it finished 1‑1. On 2021‑02‑06 in Serie B at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese won 2‑1, and on 2020‑10‑04 in Serie B at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, they drew 1‑1. This history underpins the prediction model’s h2h comparison: 71% in Pisa’s favour versus 29% for Cremonese, despite Cremonese being at home this time.

Official Prediction

The official prediction output is clear: the suggested bet is “Double chance: draw or Pisa”, with win probabilities of 10% home, 45% draw, 45% away. That is markedly at odds with the bookmaker market, which prices Cremonese as strong favourites. Across major books, home odds cluster around 1.68–1.77, the draw around 3.50–4.04, and Pisa around 4.44–5.10. Implied probabilities (before margin) roughly put Cremonese at about 55–58%, the draw 23–26%, and Pisa 18–21%. In other words, the model heavily discounts Cremonese’s chances relative to the market and sees Pisa as far more competitive.

Given Pisa’s disastrous away record, the model’s stance is driven less by raw league form and more by the specific matchup and Cremonese’s chronic scoring issues (17 league games without scoring, 0.8 goals per match). Pisa, for all their problems, still draw frequently (12 league draws, 8 away) and tend to keep games tight on the scoreboard, especially against Cremonese historically.

Betting Verdict

Betting verdict: following the official advice, the value side is on Cremonese failing to win. The recommended main pick is:

• Double chance: draw or Pisa (X2).

With the model assigning only 10% to a home win versus roughly 65–70% implied by the market, there is a clear analytical case to fade Cremonese at short odds. A cautious secondary angle, consistent with both teams’ low scoring and poor attacks, is to expect a tight game, but since the prediction feed only provides goal lines in abstract form (“-1.5” for both), the strongest data‑backed position remains the X2 double chance.